Easter Weekend Cup O’Chiefs
The readers of this web site have made it plain they view two avenues for the Chiefs in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft.
The most popular, but only by the smallest of margins, is to draft LB Aaron Curry from Wake Forest (left).
The second option is to trade out of the pick, moving down in the draft and picking up some extra draft choices in return.
We are now two weeks away from when the Chiefs must pull the trigger and the team’s chances of dealing away their spot in the selection rotation behind Detroit and St. Louis does not look very good.
More and more, word leaks from draft rooms around the NFL that while teams think this draft has a lot of talent, none of it is consider sure-fire, can’t miss, absolutely Grade A talent. It sounds more and more like the value in this draft will come from picks No. 10 through 20, maybe all the way down to the 25th selection.
Teams grade players in different manners, and with different numerical and alphabetical systems. For instance, a 1+ or A+ player is considered a future Hall of Famer. This is talent that’s ready to play and play now and figures to be on the field for many years.
An informal poll this week of five teams produced not a single 1+ or A+ player in this draft class. There are good players available, but each one of them has some warts that make teams cautious. Club personnel all talked highly of Curry, blockers Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe, quarterback Matt Stafford and receivers Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree. But all agreed there were unanswered questions about each one.
It’s likely the teams at the top of this draft order are going to pay big money for players that are not viewed as worthy of the high rate of compensation. There will always be some players in this draft that surprise and answer the questions in a positive nature. There will be an equal number that disappoint the teams that select them.
This kind of market makes trading just about impossible for a team sitting in the top five.
It’s been that way for several years now. Here’s a breakdown of trades for top 10 picks in this decade:
| Pick | ‘00 | ‘01 | ‘02 | ‘03 | ‘04 | ‘05 | ‘06 | ‘07 | ‘08 |
|
1 |
1 |
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|
2 |
1 |
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|
3 |
1 |
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|
4 |
1 |
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|
5 |
1 |
1 |
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|
6 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
||||||
|
7 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|||||
|
8 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
||||||
|
9 |
|||||||||
|
10 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|||||
|
Tot |
4 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
Just once in this decade has there been a trade for the No. 3 pick. That came in the 2000 NFL Draft, when San Francisco sent the choice to Washington for No. 12 and No. 24. The Redskins used the pick to take OT Chris Samuels, while the Niners grabbed Ahmed Plummer with the 24th pick, and traded away the 12th choice.
On the draft pick trade value chart used by many teams the Redskins got the edge there, getting a pick worth 2,200 points, while giving up a pair of picks worth 1,940 points.
Like the Chiefs at No. 3, the Detroit Lions in the first chair and St. Louis in the second are in the same boat.
Both teams would like to trade out for more picks, but recent history does not look good for them. The last time the No. 1 pick changed hands was in 2001, when San Diego and Atlanta made a deal. The Chargers gave up the choice for three draft choices (topped by the fifth pick) and WR Tim Dwight. Atlanta used the spot to draft QB Michael Vick.
The last time the No. 2 selection was traded came in the 2000 Draft, when New Orleans sent the pick to Washington in the Ricky Williams trade. The Redskins used that second spot to take LB LaVar Arrington.
In the last seven years, only one of the top five picks has been traded. That was in 2003, when Chicago sent the fourth pick to the New York Jets for a pair of first-rounders and a fourth-round choice. The Jets picked DT Dewayne Robertson.
The one factor that could work in the Chiefs favor would be a surprise pick ahead of them. Say Detroit and St. Louis both passed on Stafford. That would put a whole new picture on the No. 3 pick. Teams trolling for a quarterback might be willing to pay the price to jump that high if they liked Stafford.
As Scott Pioli has with most information, what the Chiefs would like to do with the third pick remains a state secret. They may have no interest in trading the choice, although with Pioli’s history in New England that’s doubtful. They may also have a list of three players they would like at that spot, meaning they’ll get one of them.
If recent history is to be our guide, Pioli probably wants to trade the choice, but the Chiefs will exercise that third pick.
HUARD LIKES WHAT HE’S FOUND IN SAN FRANCISCO
Damon Huard is going through the off-season program in the Bay Area, after signing with the 49ers not long after he was cut loose by the Chiefs. He chose to continue his career with the Niners for several reasons.
“For one, I’m a West Coast guy, I grew up in Seattle and this is the first chance I’ve had to play on the West Coast,” Huard said. “There’s a lot of tradition here with the 49ers. But most importantly, the offensive scheme I’ve had some background with. There are a few nuances that are a little bit different and some of the terminology is a little bit different, but a lot of it is similar to what I did in four out of my five years in Kansas City. Having that familiarity makes it more of a comfortable transition, which is a good thing when you’re playing quarterback in the NFL. Plus I’ve been in the AFC my whole career.”
Huard also likes what he’s seen of his new head coach Mike Singletary.
“I think he’s very honest, straight-forward,” Huard said. “He tells it like it is and as a player, you appreciate that. Everyone respects him, not only as a coach, but for what he did as a player. I think when your head coach is a former player and has been through those battles that we’ve all been through. He understands the experience and knows how to treat the players. He knows how to relate to the players. I think at the end of the day that just makes you a better football team
SIGNINGS & MOVEMENT AROUND THE LEAGUE
BUCS – restricted free agent OT Donald Penn signed his tender offer.
RAVENS – restricted free agents TE Quinn Sypniewski and WR Demetrius Williams signed their tender offers.
SAY HAPPY BIRTHDAY …
April 11
Born on April 11, 1986 in Arlington, Virginia was K Connor Barth. The North Carolina product hit 10 o f 12 FGs last year for the Chiefs.
Born on April 11, 1973 in Baltimore was S Reggie Tongue
(left). He joined the Chiefs as the team’s second-round choice in the 1996 NFL Draft out of Oregon State. Tongue played four of his 10 NFL seasons with the Chiefs (1996-99), appearing in 63 games, with 47 starts. He had two interceptions and 6.5 sacks.
On April 11, 1966, S Kevin Porter was born in the Bronx, N.Y. He joined the Chiefs as the team’s third round choice in the 1988 NFL Draft out of Auburn. Porter played five seasons with the Chiefs (1988-92), appearing in 76 games, with 53 starts. He had one interception and 1.5 sacks.
Born on April 11, 1960 in Den Hague, the Netherlands was P Case deBruijn. Selected by the Chiefs in the eighth round of the 1982 NFL Draft out of Idaho State, deBruijn punted in one game for the Chiefs during the 1982 season, averaging 34.8 yards per punt.
April 12
Born on April 12, 1980 in Pittsburgh was WR-KR Eddie Drummond. He played in 12 games with the Chiefs in 2007, averaging 6.9 yards on punt returns and 21.2 on kickoff returns.
Nice work Bob, good info & read. Thanks!
“The Right 53″
Bob,
Have you said what you would do if you were the GM?
MLB has a similar grading system, calling players a + arm (above average) or a ++ arm (outstanding), so what I’m hearing Bob say is that there are few if any players in this draft with so-called plus-plus grades?
But then, breaking down the various disciplines, perhaps not? For example, given his size, wouldn’t Curry rate a ++ grade on straight line speed at about 4.55 in the 40? Anyway, more fodder for us draftniks.
As much as Pioli and some of us would love a trade down, I think the Chiefs will go with the player at #3 that provides instant impact, be in the wheelhouse of Haley, and that guy will be WR Crabtree.
I think Crabtree can be a probowl type WR. That being said, the chiefs have 10 WR on the roster. I just dont see Crabtree being the pick.
The big ? on Curry is his pass rushing ability. That is why he does not grade at A+. If teams had a lot of confidence that he could rush the passer he would be the only player in this draft with an A+ rating.
I agree. The Chiefs are not going to use the #3 pick for Crabtree. I think that they would like to have him but they have greater needs that they will use for that pick.
Bob is right, as unlikely as a trade is, there are some remote scenarios that would it possible.
Personally, the only way I see the Chiefs taking Crabtree is if they trade down to the 8-10 range, and at that point, Maclin is probably a better possibility of still being on the board. Either player would be a fun pick, but if the Chiefs stay at 3, I think I’d rather see them take Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe. I love Branden Albert, but if the Chiefs could get another top notch tackle, Albert is versatile enough to move to RT. That way, Cassel has the protection he’ll need and if he sucks, Thigpen will have the protection he needs. I love what I read about Curry, but I still have misgivings about taking an ILB at pick 3.
I’m still in the trade down club though. Scrap Jimmy Johnson’s outdated value chart Bob! It’s not 1998 anymore! No one uses that chart but you.
Also, speaking of WRs, I’d love to see the Chiefs trade for Roscoe Parrish of the Bills. They’re shopping him for reportedly a mid round pick. I think he’d easily be worth our 5th rounder. Another nice slot receiver for us and an elite level punt returner. Plus, Pioli had to watch Parrish play against his Pats twice a year for the last few years so he knows the damage Parrish is capable of.
right on colby thats what i was thinking parrish is a greast plyer and hes versatile
Just read this one over on the Red Zone, and IMO is the best case scenario for us……….take it for what it’s worth…..
Submitted by ObscureDave on April 11, 2009 - 9:39am.
In terms of trades down, here is what I fantasize would happen (and who knows, it could).
First, we assume Pioli would prefer to trade down and add picks. No stretch there. Next, I will assume that he would still like to pick up Orakpo or Brown in the process.
So step one is that Cleveland lusts after Curry and fears (if still on the board) that someone will trade for our #3 or we will take Curry ourselves. We swap #3 and #5 picks with the Browns and add their own early second round pick (they have two seconds, having obtained Tampa’s).
Step two now assumes that Sanchez is on the board at #5 and a host of teams (Jets, Broncos, 49’s, Jaguars) want him and fear a competitor will trade up for our fifth to grab him. At this point Pioli swaps our #5 to the Jags for their #8 and their third round (or third and fifth round picks if Pioli can really play his hand well). If Pioli throws some other Chiefs picks into the deal, it would be great to get their second rounder instead of third.
Step three, we draft Orakpo or Brown with the #8 pick. Step four, we use our new early second round pick to take a remaining member of this year’s fine linebacker crop. Step five, we use our own third rounder for a decent right offensive tackle (not unheard to harvest good RTs at this point in the draft). Step six, with the Jags third rounder we take a good guard/center.
At this point we will have bolstered the three weak links on the OL (Mike Goff fills in well at center for a year or two). We now have a good to very good linebacker corp with Johnson, Vrabel, the second round linebacker and OLB/DE Orakpo/Brown.
HUGE strides will have been made to improve the team and we still have five picks coming in rounds 4-7.
Oh well, dreams are free!
Its obvious that KC would LOVE to deal back and get another 2nd, but its also obvious that they arent sure who they would take if they did trade back…Curry is the only “sure thing” and that is WITHOUT superior pass rush numbers, due to only blitzing an average of two-four times per game at wake.
If they deal back ,they must be certain that Brown or Orakpo would be there for the pass rush I assume, unless they feel they can get a guy like English in the early 2nd…
Honestly, I think Pioli will do the one thing none of us have thought of….whatever that is.
Forget Curry, Chiefs just signed Zach Thomas. That is correct a 35 year old LB. Third pick will be a OL or WR. Do not know if thia is good or bad but makes for a heck of Easter. The defense still looks very weak even with all these old guys.
With Zach Thomas on the field, there is going to be some on field teaching and evaluatiions going on with the linebacker corp. I like what I see so far. Experience.
Too many old guy that are done. Hopefully Zach and Engram don’t make the team.
Pioli has a history of finding interior lineman after the second round. Honestly, i cannot see the Chiefs taking a player at #2 to upgrade their ORT spot. Although, Jason Smith is a brute and if Aaron Curry is off the board, I say the Chiefs take him.
Trading the pick does seem unlikely, even if Stafford is available and doubtful he’ll be available.
If Curry is there, he should be the pick. Very rare is a LB with hand that strong, who uses those hands to tackle. Curry ragdolls blockers, the Chiefs haven’t had a LB do that in decades. As far as the blitzing who knows what the wake forest Head Coach told the Chiefs. Sometimes, players in college are not used as the would be in the pros.
Crabtree - No! I do not like his character. Orakpo and Brown are a step down from Curry, I do not see the benefit of trading down to get an inferior player.
Curry, if not him, J Smith.