Rookie Head Coaches/Recap … Weekend Cup O’Chiefs
First-time head coaches in the NFL over this decade have won an average of 7.5 games in their rookie season.
If Todd Haley completes the 2009 season with his Chiefs winning seven games, he will considered a hero in the red and gold nation. That would be a significant improvement over the 2-14 record of last season and would surpass the six victories of the last two seasons for the Chiefs.
Over the last few days as we have broken down the 30 first-time head coaches hired in the league over the previous nine seasons, we have not found a common thread that would tie up the rookie experience in one package.
Some of those 30 proved to be very good head coaches in that first season. Some were terrible and lasted less than two seasons. Only 13 of those guys are still in the same position where they got their breakthrough as a head coach.
Our goal was to see if the past would provide any sort of road map for Haley’s future. Ultimately, the results are all over the football map and there doesn’t appear to be any trends or markers to predict success or failure.
We looked at what those coaches inherited and what they were able to do in that first year, where they were learning how to be a head coach with the real action of the regular season all around them. Some handled the experience quite well. Others fell on their face.
But there were no obvious common denominators.
For this study we did not include interim head coaches who kept the job like Tom Cable in Oakland and Mike Singletary in San Francisco last year. This group includes Dick LeBeau in Cincinnati and Dave McGinnis in Arizona, both in 2000. Those guys essentially got on the job training as a head coach and were not thrown into the same type of situation that coaches who took over for an entire off-season.
If there’s are situations that seem to match most closely what Haley faces this season with the Chiefs it would be what happened with Marvin Lewis in Cincinnati (left) and Mike Mularkey in Buffalo (right).
Lewis was hired in 2003 after making a name for himself as defensive coordinator in Baltimore, including the Super Bowl season of 2000. When the Bengals picked him, Lewis had become the defensive coordinator in Washington. Mularkey joined the Bills as their head coach in 2004 after serving as offensive coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that regularly made the playoffs during his eight seasons with the team.
When hired, Lewis was 45, Mularkey 42 and Haley 42. Lewis had 12 years of NFL coaching under his belt, Mularkey 11 seasons and Haley 13 years.
The season before Lewis took over the Bengals the team finished 2-14, the Bills were 6-10 the year before Mularkey’s arrival and the Chiefs went 2-14 last year.
Lewis improved the Bengals by six victories as the team went 8-8. The next year they were 8-8 and by Lewis’ third season Cincinnati was 11-5 and won the AFC North. He remains head coach of the Bengals, with a 46-51 record over six seasons.
Mularkey pushed the Bills to 9-7 in his first season, a three-victory improvement. But the next season the Bills went 5-11 and he was fired, finishing two seasons with a 14-18 record.
Two similar stories, two very different results. Will Haley generate improvement as those two coaches did? Will he be able to keep improving the team in year two, or year three if they come as Lewis did with the Bengals? How long will Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli wait on an every season contender for the playoffs?
Another step on the rookie head coach’s journey will come a week from Saturday, when the Chiefs hold their first training camp practices of the Haley Era.
Here’s a breakdown on some of the other facts that we found:
COACHES COME AND COACHES GO, EXPERIENCED OR NOT
Through the last weekend of the 2008 season, there had been 61 coaching changes in the league in this decade, with 34 of them first-time head coaches. That number falls to 30 when you eliminate the interim guys who kept the job: LeBeau, McGinnis, Cable and Singletary. That leaves 27 head coaches hired who had previous experience leading a team on the college or pro level.
Exactly half of those 30 first-time head coaches have already been fired, another two resigned, leaving 13 still working. Among those 27 with experience, 14 have been fired, four retired, three left under their own terms and six are still coaching.
Do the math and the first-timers have actually survived at a higher rate than the experienced guys, by some 21 percent.
Add in nine more changes for this year and that’s 70 for the decade, with 36 getting their first head coaching jobs and 30 experienced guys getting another chance.
ROOKIE HEAD COACHES IN THE PLAYOFFS
One-third of those first time head coaches took their teams to the playoffs in that rookie season. One took his team to the Super Bowl. That was Bill Callahan with the Raiders, who saw his team crushed by former Oakland head coach Jon Gruden and his Tampa Bay Bucs.
Other first-time head coaches that went to the post-season were Jim Haslett with the Saints, Mike Martz with the Rams, Herm Edwards in New York with the Jets, Jim Mora, Jr. in Atlanta, Eric Mangini with the Jets, Sean Payton with the Saints, Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh and Baltimore’s John Harbaugh and Atlanta’s Mike Smith last season.
IMPROVEMENT USUALLY COMES THAT FIRST SEASON
Generally, coaches are changed on teams with bad records. And generally, that should make the odds easier for a new coach to win more games than his predecessor.
Of the 30 first-timers, 22 produced a better record in that first year than the team had the season before. Eight went the other direction.
The best first-time performers in improving their team’s victory total by seven games were Haslett, Payton and Smith. In 2000, the Saints went from 3-13 to 10-6 when Haslett took over. The same thing happened in New Orleans with Payton with the Saints in 2006. The season before Smith became the Falcons head coach, the team went 4-12. Then went 11-5 under Smith last year.
The coach who went in the other direction, posting seven fewer victories in his first season was Marty Mornhinweg with the Lions. Detroit was 9-7 in 2000 and then with the first-time head coach went 2-14. Mornhinweg survived just one more season before he was fired.
SIGNINGS & MOVEMENT AROUND THE LEAGUE
BILLS – agreed to terms with fourth-round draft choice TE Shawn Nelson.
CHARGERS – released LB Matt Wilhelm.
COWBOYS – signed fourth-round draft choice LB Victor Butler, fifth-round S DeAngelo Smith, sixth-round S Stephen Hodge, sixth-round TE John Phillips, seventh-round CB Mike Mickens and seventh-round WR Manuel Johnson.
EAGLES – named Sean McDermott defensive coordinator.
49ERS – signed fifth-round draft choice QB Nate Davis; released safety Lewis Baker.
RAVENS – signed WR Drew Bennett (Rams).
SEAHAWKS – signed third-round draft choice WR Deon Butler.
TEXANS – signed third-round draft choice OL Antoine Caldwell and fifth-round TE James Casey.
SAY HAPPY BIRTHDAY …
Born on July 25, 1959 in Albany, New York was TE Pete Holohan. He joined the Chiefs for the 1991 season and played in 16 games with three starts. Holohan caught 13 passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns for the Chiefs. He spent 12 seasons in the NFL with the Chargers, Rams, Chiefs and Browns, after playing his college football at Notre Dame.
Nice overview Bob. Looking at the roster and reviewing the positions, my grade for the Chiefs’ overall talent is about a C- or slightly below average. If true, that translates out to a win total of 4 games on the low end, 6 on the high.
In order to get more than that, the coaches have to make a difference or get many guys to over achieve. The players might have it in them to do this IF they’re held closely accountable which seems to be a strength of Haley.
It goes to the old axiom in the business world: Work closely inspected is work improved. So, I’ll be looking for the players melding into a team, buying into what the coaches are imparting, executing the game plan and again, over achieving. Tall order.
Bob like tour artical but i think the training camp will make a greater impact on the team as herm made camp a joke i dont thank the coach this year will be so easy better coach thanks.
If nothing else, Chiefs Nation should expect the players to know that they will be coached up to a certain standard and will hear about it if, as and when they fail to achieve. This may well be more evident in the defense than the offense.
Perhaps hardest to discern to the more casual fan would be the development of team cohesion. The concept of playing as a team is likely to lead to a lot fewer spectacular plays; it should also lead to a lot fewer deflating long runs by the opponents when it seems that KC has the other teams stopped.
But the absence of an occurrence, i.e. the unexpected long run or other glaring mistakes, is something that would be noted and commented upon by a coach at a team meeting and, as is now becoming obvious, outsiders are not likely to hear about that.
So with the possible exception of Dwayne Bowe’s dropped pass stats, there may not be a lot that will be too noticeable.
Thanks for the articles and the work you do to include facts into your material. I try to look at the Chiefs realisticly and your facts do give us a hint, but not even you can predict Haley’s record. It does give us hope to try on a pair of “homer glasses.”
Question: How much does talent have to do with the success of a “new” coach? i.e. Atlanta only won 4 games but there was much disruption on the team, so not surprising Smith won those games last year … plus, the team hit on a good QB. It seems that it takes 4 or 5 years to really evaluate a coaches ability … gives him time to select his own talent.
The key talent is the #1 piece of the puzzle for winning a S.B. Bill Belichick is touted as the best in the NFL right now, but in Cleveland he had only 1 winning season in 5 years. In fact, it is luck and key talent … as an example, had Drew not been hurt, which allowed Brady to get a chance to play, would Bill ever have won a S.B.? And would D.V. have won in St. Louis if Green had not been hurt? No way to place that kind of info on your charts.
Yes, it does take great coaches … i.e. Elway didn’t win a S.B. until Shanny arrived. Walsh made Joe M. but Joe had to throw it and (who was it?) Clark had to catch it for them to advance to the S.B. There are several other examples. Also, there are examples of bad coaches with good talent.
I guess what I’m driving at is … there is no way for you to qualify (ahead of time) whether Haley will be able to help recognize excellent talent, coach up the players, and game plan to put them into a position to win and get to the promise land. But, “Now, where did I leave those glasses … been so long ….”
“Will Haley generate improvement as those two coaches (Lewis & Mularkey) did?”
- no, ‘check’ will not…
“Will he be able to keep improving the team in year two, or year three if they come as Lewis did with the Bengals?”
- no, will be terminated afore said…
“How long will Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli wait on an every season contender for the playoffs?”
- not long enough for - ‘check’ will be singing (cue Roy Rogers) “Happy trails to you, until we meet again…”
“COACHES COME AND COACHES GO, EXPERIENCED OR NOT”
- affirming Rin’s prediction…he’s a goner.
“Do the math and”
- you come to the conclusion is on borrowed time…
“Other first-time head coaches that went to the post-season were . . . Herm Edwards.”
- alas, Kaycee has but - life is so unfair…
“IMPROVEMENT USUALLY COMES THAT FIRST SEASON”
- yes…almost inevitably, KCs case any result the experience gained by the plethora of team rookies of a season afore…only a boob (or 2) would prevent said - the Chiefs have a matched pair.
“Generally, coaches are changed on teams with bad records. And generally, that should make the odds easier for a new coach to win more games than his predecessor.”
- as Rin has said, every ‘W’ in ‘09 result Herm & his Chiefs, every ‘L’ same the result the errancy the duo &
“Eight went the other direction.”
- alas, they did not understand as the ’simplicity’ of “any 22 will do”…
daddy-o
If the Chiefs can go 4 & 7 in their first 11 games, they would be in great shape. That’s the toughest part of their schedule. All of their last 5 games would appear to be possible wins. I think they can go 4 & 1 in those games. That would leave them at 8 & 8. Perhaps I may be too optimistic. but I still think this is a good possibility.
Niblick … I think it is as difficult to predict wins/losses for this year as it is to predict whether Haley will be a successful coach. I hope you are correct. But, my “most” hope is for the team to grow/improve as the year goes along and then there will be improvement in each of the coming years. But, I kinda think they will win more than most people expect.
Rin, where are you coming from? I think you are wrong about Haley being fired quickly. You forget Pioli and Haley are friends and/or NFL soulmates. Thus, he & Clark will give Haley plenty of rope to hang himself. I believe Haley will do well enough to hang on for at least 4 or 5 years. My hope is for him to learn and become an excellent coach, but only time will tell.
My only hope it Haley can instill the fundamentals we’ve lacked the past years. I can’t handle another season full of missed tackles and dropped passes.
“Rin”
- yes, what is it now?
“where are you coming from?”
- from a lineage great intellect, southern France…
“I think you are wrong about Haley being fired quickly.”
- Rin thinks you are wrong - s time here will be a Midget…
“You forget Pioli and Haley are friends and/or NFL soulmates.”
- Rin forgets nothing - Herm and Carl too were same…Jr.’s $ixth $en$e made said moot, same will apply to current duo in due time…
“Thus, he & Clark will give Haley plenty of rope to hang himself.”
- just like Herm E, who got only 3 years of his 4 year contract & more so only year one of an owner approved rebuild? No resolve = no reward. Never mistake Jr. for Job. By the way, s working under a 4 year deal too; hmm…
“I believe Haley will do well enough to hang on for at least 4 or 5 years.”
- I do not share your phantasm…
“My hope is for him to learn and become an excellent coach, but only time will tell.”
- Rin’s hope is resigns before he has to be dragged out by the neck…
daddy-o
Dear Great Intellect,
Please look up the difference between nay and nee…
GO ‘09 CHIEFS!
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the best line from Rin (from a lineage great intellect) Two things that don’t go together a person that says their smart and also think Herm was a good coach.
After a two win season, and with the schedule KC has, its easy to be negative like Rin.
However what is “easy” doesnt always work, since the stat of 5 teams for the past 13 years that made the playoffs didnt the next year.
Point? Easy would be having those same teams, easy is to say KC wont win under Haley.
Its easy but its not right.
“the best line from Rin”
- is always the next great His which e’er tops the former great…
“(from a lineage great intellect)”
- great line - I really enjoyed that myself…
“Two things that don’t go together”
- Chiefs and success via & roll:
“a person that says their smart”
- isn’t; should read “they’re” ’stead o’ their…
“and also”
- neither nor…
“think Herm was a good coach.”
- without question I do - he was the best.
daddy-o
You can’t tell TOO much before they actually start playin’ the games, but Haley is one who wasn’t thrown into a job that’s bigger than he is, judging by how he’s handled things.
At this point he SHOULD be perceived as demanding and a little bit crusty. In his “first command,” the worst thing he could do is come across like he wants to be his players’ friend. He seems to be handling things very efficiently.
People talk about his fiery coaching style, but I don’t hear a lot of ego-serving BS from him. So I think he’ll be just fine.
“Rin, where are you coming from? I think you are wrong about Haley being fired quickly. You forget Pioli and Haley are friends and/or NFL soulmates. Thus, he & Clark will give Haley plenty of rope to hang himself. I believe Haley will do well enough to hang on for at least 4 or 5 years. My hope is for him to learn and become an excellent coach, but only time will tell.”
Gerry,
Welcome to the land where the troll dwells. He religiously believes that Herm is the man and finds it fun to argue that “down is up” and “up is down.” Don’t be flustered by it. Sometimes it’s fun to make light of the troll and refute some of his silly positions - but don’t spend your time arguing - as the counterpoints are more important than listening to what you have to say.
Trolls happen. Frustration doesn’t have to.
SG
HermRocked Gerry.