Surviving The Top 5 … Wednesday Cup O’Chiefs
Carl Peterson used to say it all the time.
“I don’t ever want to be drafting in the top five,” the former Chiefs GM said. “That means your team is struggling and you didn’t win a lot of games the year before.”
During Peterson’s reign in charge of the franchise, the Chiefs had a top five draft choice three times: 1989, 2008 and 2009. Derrick Thomas was the fourth choice in ‘89 and went on to a Hall of Fame career. Glenn Dorsey was the fifth pick of the ‘08 Draft and has been a solid, if unspectacular player. Peterson didn’t get the chance to use the third choice of the ‘09 Draft that went for DE Tyson Jackson.
In theory, the top five choices should be the top five players available in that year’s draft. Funny, how it doesn’t always end up that way. Even though the teams picking in the first five slots get a head start, they take just as many busts as teams picking at other areas of the first round.
What are the odds on getting a good player at one through five?
There’s only one way to answer, and that’s look at the careers of those players selected at those spots. We started with the 2007 NFL Draft, since those players have been playing for three years and have left a track record. We went back 10 seasons, to the 1998 selection meeting:
| Year |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
| 2007 |
QB JaMarcus Russell - Oakland |
WR Calvin Johnson - Detroit |
OT Joe Thomas - Cleveland |
DE Gaines Adams - Tampa Bay |
OT Levi Brown - Arizona |
| 2006 |
DE Mario Williams – Houston |
RB Reggie Bush – New Orleans |
QB Vince Young – Tennessee |
OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson – N.Y. Jets |
LB A.J. Hawk – Green Bay |
| 2005 |
QB Alex Smith – San Francisco |
RB Ronnie Brown – Miami |
WR Braylon Edwards – Cleveland |
RB Cedric Benson – Chicago |
RB Cadillac Williams – Tampa Bay |
| 2004 |
QB Eli Manning – San Diego |
OT Robert Gallery – Oakland |
WR Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona |
QB Phillip Rivers – N.Y. Giants |
S Sean Taylor – Washington |
| 2003 |
QB Carson Palmer – Cincinnati |
WR Charles Rogers – Detroit |
WR Andre Johnson – Houston |
DE Dewayne Robertson – N. Y. Jets |
CB Terence Newman – Dallas |
| 2002 |
QB David Carr – Houston |
DE Julius Peppers – Carolina |
QB Joey Harrington – Detroit |
OT Mike Williams – Buffalo |
CB Quentin Jammer – San Diego |
| 2001 |
QB Michael Vick – Atlanta |
G Leonard Davis – Arizona |
DT Gerard Warren – Cleveland |
DE Justin Smith – Cincinnati |
RB LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego |
| 2000 |
DT Courtney Brown – Cleveland |
LB Lavar Arrington – Washington |
OT Chris Samuels – Washington |
WR Peter Warrick – Cincinnati |
RB Jamal Lewis – Baltimore |
| 1999 |
QB Tim Couch – Cleveland |
QB Donovan McNabb – Philadelphia |
QB Akili Smith – Cincinnati |
RB Edgerrin James – Indianapolis |
RB Ricky Williams – New Orleans |
|
1998 |
QB Peyton Manning – Indianapolis |
QB Ryan Leaf – San Diego |
DE Andre Wadsworth – Arizona |
CB Charles Woodson – Oakland |
RB Curtis Enis – Chicago |
Blue players considered successful selections/Red players were busts.
That’s quite an interesting collection of 50 names. There are future Hall of Famers there in Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson. There are also several of the biggest draft busts in the last quarter-century in Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers.
So how do the odds fall for the top five? Based on our evaluation, 27 of those 50 (54%) would qualify as successful selections, with 18 of the 50 (36%) qualifying a busts. The other five selections fall into a gray area where they’ve performed, but have not excelled.
The evaluations are based on what the draft choice provided to the team that selected him. Ricky Williams has certainly had a successful NFL career, but he didn’t provide much help to the Saints. Braylon Edwards may salvage something of his career, but he was a major disappointment for the Browns. Cedric Benson revived his career in Cincinnati last year; with the Bears he was a bust.
The idea is that selecting at a primo position helps a team achieve enough victories that they would not draft in that spot again. Of course, it doesn’t always work that way. Let’s take the 10 drafts of the 2000s. There were 25 teams that had at least one pick at the top. Cleveland and Detroit had the most with four each. Given that the Lions remain in the top five this year, is evidence enough that drafting high hasn’t helped the folks in Motown. It’s the same thing with the Browns, who are just outside the top five in the ‘10 Draft.
One team that made the top picks work for them was Arizona. They had top five picks in ‘01, ‘04 and ‘07, with the Cardinals grabbing G Leonard Davis, WR Larry Fitzgerald and OT Levi Brown. Obviously, Fitzgerald has been a huge part of the fact they’ve made the playoffs for two consecutive seasons, including one Super Bowl.
There are seven teams that did not have a top five pick in any of the 2000s Drafts: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Denver, Philadelphia and Miami. That group features six of the 10 Super Bowl champions for the decade.
Quarterbacks were the most popular picks in the top five of the 2000s drafts, with a dozen selected. Offensive tackles were next at eight, then defensive ends and running backs at seven. Only one safety and one guard were drafted in the top five during the decade. Just three linebackers went in those 10 drafts.
Although every draft choice is a roll of the dice, teams tend to become conservative when they are picking in the top five. They are going to stick to the script as closely as possible. Evidence of that can be seen in where those players come from; in the 2000s of the 50 selected players 42 came from just four conferences: the ACC (13), the SEC (12), the Big 10 (9) and the Big 12 (8).
The names being thrown around as possible top five picks in ‘10 are no different: there are two quarterbacks, two defensive linemen, two offensive tackles, a safety and a wide receiver. Among those eight players are five coming out of the Big 12, with one each from the Big 10, SEC and Notre Dame.
Ultimately, it comes down to this for team’s drafting at the top: when you have the opportunity, don’t screw up. When you have the chance, be like the Colts who grabbed Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James in the top five and haven’t drafted there since. The Eagles got QB Donovan McNabb in the top five in ‘99 and won plenty of games over the next 10 seasons without returning to the top five.
More talent is available to the Chiefs drafting in the fifth spot than it they were selecting 10, 20 or 25 spots later. That’s obvious. But the gamble is bigger as well, because failure is so costly.
With the fifth selection in the 2010 NFL Draft a team with a 10-38 record over the last three seasons cannot fail. They must produce a difference maker, a player talented enough to make sure they don’t pick in the top five again anytime soon.
KROENKE OWNERSHIP SITUATION COULD BECOME VERY INTERESTING
Columbia, Missouri businessman Stan Kroenke wants to buy the 60 percent of the St. Louis Rams ownership that he does not currently own. But there is a major hurdle that Kroenke must deal with, and that’s the NFL’s cross ownership rules.
The statute basically says this: a majority or controlling owner of an NFL franchise cannot own or control a franchise in another professional sport in another city. Kroenke controls the Colorado Avalanche of the NHL and the Denver Nuggets of the NBA.
Here’s the exact wording: No person who owns a majority interest in — or has direct or indirect operating control of — an NFL member club may own or acquire any interest in a club in another major team sport (baseball, basketball, and hockey) except for a club located in a.) his NFL club’s home city or b.) a non-NFL city that is not a potential NFL city.
The cross-ownership situation really began in the 1970s and it involved the late founder of the Chiefs and AFL, Lamar Hunt. The league tried to stop Hunt and Miami owner Joe Robbie from buying franchises in the North American Soccer League. More punch was taken out of the rules in the 1990s to allow Wayne Huzienga to purchase the Dolphins and Paul Allen to buy the Seattle Seahawks. Huzienga owned the Florida Marlins in major league baseball and the Florida Panthers in the NHL; Allen owned the NBA’s Portland Trailblazers.
PERSONNEL UPDATE
- BRONCOS – RFA WR Brandon Marshall signed tender offer.
- 49ERS – RFA G David Bass signed tender offer.
- JETS – RFA QB Kellen Clemens signed tender offer.
- RAVENS – released CB Samari Rolle.
- SAINTS – RFA TE David Thomas, RFA NT Remi Ayodele and RFA OT Jermon Bushrod signed tender offers.
- SEAHAWKS – DE Patrick Kerney announced his retirement.
- STEELERS – RFA K Jeff Reed signed franchise player tender offer.
- TITANS – RFA DT Keith Vickerson signed tender offer.
- VIKINGS – RFA FB Naufahu Tahi signed tender offer.
Ok so we got a 50/50 chance with our top 5 pick. I just hope SP hits a home run with this one.
So does that mean we will soon have the “Colorado Rams”? Could Denver support 2 NFL teams, one NFC and one AFC? Nothing that I know of ties the Rams to St Lou, infact theres been many talks of the team moven back to LA.
Go Chiefs!!!
Sean Taylor was a #5 Safety Pick. This makes me want Berry even more.
Berry has the talent but (Mad Chief) does he have the talent in front of him to matter? A stud is someone who teams have to be aware of every snap of the ball. Face it, any offense facing the Chiefs will be more worried of the DL and LBs falling down before they worry about Berry. Eight guys in front of him who need help, S is a definite #5 pick and the rest can chase plays in 2010.
At least Denver’s Marshall has moved on, so there goes one WR the Chiefs could not cover.
Carl Peterson…“I don’t ever want to be drafting in the top five,”
Good words. Very true. I hope we never have to again, actually…unless it’s via a trade somehow. Sort of ironic that the man that “used to say it all the time” is the very reason we ARE picking that high. Again. Arguably, of course.
Now that Brandon Marshall signed his tender offer…I look for him to be traded before (or during) the draft.
And I wonder if Samari Rolle’s phone rang yet…with Scott Pioli on the other end?
el cid says:
“Berry has the talent but (Mad Chief) does he have the talent in front of him to matter?”
Good point. We definitely need a NT. And some LB help. I could see Berry as a critical piece of the puzzle. But, the answer to your question is probably “no”. Unless and until we can stop the run…we’re still going to suck on Defense.
Marshall was traded to the Dolphins for a 2010 2d rd pick and a 2011 2d rd pick.
See…I was right.
Ha! Hadn’t heard that yet. Thanks.
If the Chiefs use the #5 for a OT, we will have tons of money tied up in three OLinemen. We will still be short at receiver, DL, LB, and, of course, S. Some spots can be filled in 2nd and 3rd rounds as long as Pioli does a better job than in 09, face it, his draft other than Succop did not even play on special teams. I do not hold out much hope. The “experts” say Pioli wants positional players over talent. A major mistake.
I don’t see any way Pioli takes an O-lineman with our top pick. Don’t see it at all. We’ll find out pretty soon, though…draft is coming up fast.
The “experts” don’t know who the hell Pioli is going to pick…any more than we do.
Who else is there? You are correct about Pioli but who else is there? Wr, we need a great one but no one in the Chiefs organization is going to sink or swim on a WR. Center, desparate need but re-signed Weigman so no pick there. DL? Jackson and Magee got to step up or 09 draft a bust and how much more money can we salt into DL. LB no at the #5 level. DB no again. S, maybe Berry or kid from TX but at #5, do not think so. How about a QB?…..Hmmmm, means the Chief throw Cassel and his money under “the bus”. Would be the stuff dreams are made of but no again. So who else than one of the 3 OT, same basic guys?
I think it will either be Berry or McClain. Or possibly Suh…if by some chance he falls. Or maybe McCoy does? What if by some chance the Rams don’t take Bradford? That would sure throw everything out of whack. A trade down is always possible…but not all that likely. Maybe Pioli goes nuts, and picks Tebow. Who knows?
Williams and Cody are only NT for the 3-4 that fit and I do not want either at #5. McClain a reach and did we not have enough reaches in 09? Bradford, Tebow, or Clausen all mean Pioli blew it with Cassel, to big of ego for that to happen.
Would love Suh or NT McCoy but the Chiefs seem lock into 3-4 and they do not play that style.
Predict a reach or OT. Who?,it does not matter because both are bad moves.
I figure Williams or Berry both out of Tenn. At least they are not from LSU. Neither is a #5 but what the heck.
I agree el cid.
Pioli is between a rock & a hard spot. Picking at #5 this year sucks. He may have his hand forced into a NT, QB or LB. Not necessarily a bad move though. Just not fan friendly.
The best we can hope for is a trade down.
Go Chiefs.
As long as we get a damn good player at #5, I don’t see how it can be considered a “reach”…or how anyone can say a guy shouldn’t be picked that high.
I have to disagree (again) with the Pioli/Cassel situation. We needed a QB last year…and Pioli got us one. The way Cassel’s contract is worked, we can dump him for little or nothing after this year. Will we? Who knows? But, this idea that we’re “married” to Cassel for years and years no matter what? We’re not. Another sub-par year, and I think he’s gone. Pioli gave Cassel two years to prove himself…which was a really smart move. I seriously doubt we would pick a QB high in the draft this year…but I think we’ll take one in the later rounds. However, if Colt McCoy is still there in the 2nd for us…I’d love to see us take him. I think he’s the “real deal”…and will be the “steal” of the QB draftees this year. I do NOT want Clausen under any circumstance. I’d take Bradford, though…if he somehow fell to #5.
Cassell’s sub par year has more to do with dropped balls and poor protection rather than poor QB performance. I’d rather keep Cassell than draft Clausen … they’ll probably look at someone in the later rounds at QB rather than gamble on a 5 pick like Clausen. Much better to trade down but if they don’t work a deal then Berry is the playmaker they need on D at 5.
“The best we can hope for is a trade down.”
I don’t know if either side would do it…but what might be the merits of trading our #5 pick to Miami for Ted Ginn Jr. and their #12 overall? We get our slot/returner guy and still have a very viable pick at #12.
SG,
The only problem with that scenario is…that Ginn sucks. We already have all the below-average WR’s we need. I think, anyway.
So what players do we think will be the top candidates for “we’re scratching our heads wondering why Pioli picked up this” player for the 2010 Draft?
SG,
No matter who we get…there will be those that don’t like it, or understand it. So my answer would be, for those people that do that sort of thing…all of them.
How about this…based on our limited history of our GM’s selections…our tendency to thorougly address our positions of needs in 2009…after picking Dan Williams at #5 overall…we will select…the highly needed value pick at the top of Round 3…Al Woods…Defensive Tackle…out of LSU…?
Ugly, ugly. Could we stay away from LSU guys for a year or two?
SG says:
“…based on our limited history of our GM’s selections…”
Exactly. We only have one year of Pioli to go by. One year where he had the final say. And he didn’t have his scouts and his “people” in place. So, no real history to go by…and with last year’s picks, it sure has some people “freaked”.
Of course, I’m one of those people that doesn’t see TJax as a bad pick. Or Magee. Or Washington, either…for that matter. I think you’re going to see those guys start to produce this upcoming year. And I predict at least one of those three will step it up big time.
“And I predict at least one of those three will step it up big time.”
Agreed. T-Jax will step it up. I’ll be surprised to see Magee be more than a situational guy (and Gilberry already seems to be filling that type role quite well).
Or maybe it will be Donald Washington. This kid has a lot of “upside”. He could turn out to be a pretty good player, with good coaching and some experience. Although, they did just give the poor guy #27…and let Thomas Jones have his #20. So, I hope that’s not some sort of a curse on DW.
Yeah, Washington had to finish summer school to graduate college. He was not able to attend the OTA’s & workouts. I hear he is fast & smart. Hopefully with a full season of workouts we might get an idea of why he was drafted in the first place. I’m also anticipating good things from Colin Brown this year.
“He could turn out to be a pretty good player, with good coaching and some experience.”
And staying healthy would be good too…I agree he could be a pleasant surprise.
Very true, Jimbo. He also came out early, instead of playing another year in college. He’s pretty “raw”…but the talent is definitely there. Now that we have some really good coaches…we’ll see.
I haven’t given up on any of the 2009 draftees yet. The NFL is a whole different world for these kids, and it takes some time to adjust. Pioli wasn’t just pulling names out of a hat. He saw something in all these players. Who knows…in another year or two people may be looking back at what a good draft 2009 was for us. I think that could very well happen (although I know el cid is probably gonna’ rip on me now).
Agreed Mad Chief,
As far as I’m concerned it takes 3 to 5 Yrs. to determine a boom or bust on any NFL player & or draft yr. I still have faith in the class of 09. I’m in agreement that some players drafted don’t make it 1 or 2 yrs. But those who make it past the second year can be real gems, especially defensive players.(more development time)
It’s plain silly to think otherwise.
Go Chiefs.
Let’s see a team, un-named, is 2-14, gets new GM and coaches. There is a draft. The first round pick is “given” a job and by game 10 produces. Pick 2 got a starting QB and LB. Pick 3 is the same position as pick 1. The rest is CB, RB, OL, TE and the last pick in the total draft is K. With all that all players taken after #3 round cannot help a 2-14 team even on special teams. That is right they cannot beat out guys who basically run down the field and block or tackle the first body they see. So you are only two happy to wait 2-3 years to see if these kids can find some place on the field to produce, how noble. At that rate the un-named team will be a dynasty in 6-8 years, that would be 2015 or later and then you can determine if they are a bust or not, WOW.
el cid,
I look forward to your posts more than anyone’s…even though we disagree on damn near everything. LMAO!
Rookies that come into the NFL? How many players “rookie” year is the best year of their career? None. That’s how many. Zero. We would all like our draft picks to come to our team and make an immediate impact. It simply does not happen.
Call the 2009 draft whatever you want. I’m waiting to see how good these guys might be. And no matter who we draft this year…it won’t get us to Super Bowl in 2011. The year after? Who knows? Pioli is trying to build us a year in and year out contender. I’m willing to give the guy more than a year to do it. Those that don’t want to give the man a reasonable chance? Sorry…don’t know what to tell you.
Gloom and doom…the sky is falling…LMAO! My hat is off to you guys that think that way. If I didn’t have any hope that we’re going to get “there”…I wouldn’t even bother being a fan of this team.
“Gloom and doom…the sky is falling…”
There once was a world-famous Napa Valley wine maker who decided to make a new wine one day. The wine maker proceeded making this wine. The process seemed to work just fine, but at the end of the day, the wine was downright horrible! The wine maker thought, “I’ve already invested thousands of dollars making this wine. I cannot simply scrap this vintage.” So they proceeded to bring this wine to market. All of the wine maker’s famous friends came to his house to taste this wine. Although each one personally grimaced as if in pain when tasting the wine, each praised the new vintage, stating it was wonderful. Word got out and the wine taster came to try the new vintage. Much like the others, the wine taster grimaced, but didn’t want to challenge the reputation of the wine maker, and thus, sung his praises as well. And thus, the world got a horrible product.
Don’t forget, we’re rooting for this team too – even if we refuse to check our brains at the door when we do so.